The Prediction Markets

Who will win the next Mongolian presidential election?

Closes
Jun 29, 2028, in 20 months
Traded
$34K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Gombojavyn Zandanshatar 26%

Next is Norovyn Altankhuyag at 19.2%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Gombojavyn Zandanshatar 26%Norovyn Altankhuyag 19.2%Odongiin Tsogtgerel 13.6%Luvsannyamyn Gantömör 10.3%Dashdondogiin Ganbat 6.8%5 others 24.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Gombojavyn Zandanshatar
26%
Kalshi 19%(26% fair)polled, 46s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gombojavyn Zandanshatar
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
9.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Norovyn Altankhuyag
19.2%
Kalshi 14%(19.2% fair)polled, 46s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Norovyn Altankhuyag
Last price
14%
Fair, margin removed
19.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$169
Trade this on Kalshi
Odongiin Tsogtgerel
13.6%
Kalshi 9.9%(13.6% fair)polled, 46s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Odongiin Tsogtgerel
Last price
9.9%
Fair, margin removed
13.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$921
Trade this on Kalshi
Luvsannyamyn Gantömör
10.3%
Kalshi 7.5%(10.3% fair)polled, 46s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luvsannyamyn Gantömör
Last price
7.5%
Fair, margin removed
10.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dashdondogiin Ganbat
6.8%
Kalshi 5%(6.8% fair)polled, 46s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dashdondogiin Ganbat
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
6.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dashzegviin Amarbayasgalan
6.4%
Kalshi 4.7%(6.4% fair)polled, 46s agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dashzegviin Amarbayasgalan
Last price
4.7%
Fair, margin removed
6.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sandagiin Byambatsogt
6.2%
Kalshi 4.5%(6.2% fair)polled, 46s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sandagiin Byambatsogt
Last price
4.5%
Fair, margin removed
6.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Luvsantserengiin Enkh-Amgalan
5.5%
Kalshi 4%(5.5% fair)polled, 46s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luvsantserengiin Enkh-Amgalan
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Khaltmaagiin Battulga
4.6%
Kalshi 3.4%(4.7% fair)polled, 46s agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Khaltmaagiin Battulga
Last price
3.4%
Fair, margin removed
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$239
Trade this on Kalshi
Nyam-Osoryn Uchral
1.4%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nyam-Osoryn Uchral
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: General Election Commission of Mongolia

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Gombojavyn Zandanshatar
  • Norovyn Altankhuyag
  • Odongiin Tsogtgerel

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will win the next Mongolian presidential election?". Gombojavyn Zandanshatar leads at 26%. Next is Norovyn Altankhuyag at 19.2%. $34K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 29, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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