The Prediction Markets

Who will win the next Nigerian presidential election?

Starts in 86 daysKickoff
Traded
$150K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
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What the markets expect

Bola Tinubu 68.3%

Next is Peter Obi at 23.5%. The venues differ most on Bola Tinubu (Polymarket 67.5%, Kalshi 71%), a 3.5-point gap.

Bola Tinubu 68.3%Peter Obi 23.5%Kashim Shettima 4%Atiku Abubakar 3%Omoyele Sowore 0.5%2 others 0.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Bola Tinubu
68.3%
Polymarket 67.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 71%(70.1% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bola Tinubu
Last price
67.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$87K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bola Tinubu
Last price
71%
Fair, margin removed
70.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Peter Obi
23.5%
Polymarket 24%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 22%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peter Obi
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Peter Obi
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Kashim Shettima
4%
Kalshi 4.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kashim Shettima
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
Atiku Abubakar
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Atiku Abubakar
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Omoyele Sowore
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Omoyele Sowore
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rabiu Kwankwaso
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rabiu Kwankwaso
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rotimi Amaechi
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rotimi Amaechi
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket

Venue prices are 2 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 17, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Feb 28, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: inecnigeria.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Independent National Electoral Commission
Show full rule comparison
  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes Jan 17, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Feb 28, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Bola Tinubu
  • Peter Obi
  • Kashim Shettima

Live prices for Bola Tinubu

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will win the next Nigerian presidential election?". Bola Tinubu leads at 68.3%. Next is Peter Obi at 23.5%. $150K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 28, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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