The Prediction Markets

Who will win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

Closes
Dec 31, 2028, in 27 months
Traded
$144K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Chuck Schumer 74.8%

Next is Chris Murphy at 9.2%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Chuck Schumer 74.8%Chris Murphy 9.2%Brian Schatz 7.7%Chris Van Hollen 4.8%Patty Murray 1.9%8 others 1.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Chuck Schumer
74.8%
Kalshi 80%(74.8% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chuck Schumer
Last price
80%
Fair, margin removed
74.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chris Murphy
9.2%
Kalshi 9.9%(9.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Murphy
Last price
9.9%
Fair, margin removed
9.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Kalshi
Brian Schatz
7.7%
Kalshi 8.2%(7.7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 8.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brian Schatz
Last price
8.2%
Fair, margin removed
7.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chris Van Hollen
4.8%
Kalshi 5.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 5.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Van Hollen
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Patty Murray
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Patty Murray
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cory Booker
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cory Booker
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Amy Klobuchar
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Amy Klobuchar
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jacky Rosen
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jacky Rosen
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$159
Trade this on Kalshi
Jon Ossoff
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Ossoff
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$749
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Warner
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Warner
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$136
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
Raphael Warnock
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Raphael Warnock
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ruben Gallego
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ruben Gallego
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$259
Trade this on Kalshi
Tammy Baldwin
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tammy Baldwin
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Senate Democrats

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Chuck Schumer
  • Chris Murphy
  • Brian Schatz

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?". Chuck Schumer leads at 74.8%. Next is Chris Murphy at 9.2%. $144K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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