The Prediction Markets

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$259K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Zhao Leji 5.5%

Next is Li Qiang at 5.2%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Zhao Leji
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zhao Leji
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Li Qiang
5.2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Li Qiang
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Li Xi
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Li Xi
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Polymarket
Wang Huning
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wang Huning
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dong Jun
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dong Jun
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ding Xuexiang
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ding Xuexiang
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Polymarket
Wang Yi
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wang Yi
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cai Qi
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cai Qi
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$56K
Trade this on Polymarket
Zhang Shengmin
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zhang Shengmin
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Zhao Leji
  • Li Qiang
  • Li Xi

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?". Zhao Leji leads at 5.5%. Next is Li Qiang at 5.2%. $259K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 1) The listed individual is removed or resigns from their primary political post or from their position, if any, on the Chinese Politburo or its standing committee, with a consensus of credible reporting describing the resignation/removal as a “purge”, “ousting”, or similar language, or to have presumably or definitively occurred as a result of corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or a lack of political favor. 2) The listed individual is expelled from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Qualifying announcements and reporting of a purge before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal/expulsion goes into effect. A listed individual leaving office at the end of a regularly scheduled term, or being removed/resigning from office without a consensus of credible reporting describing the resignation/removal as a “purge”, “ousting”, or similar language, or to have presumably or definitively occurred as a result of corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or a lack of political favor, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from the Chinese Government and a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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