The Prediction Markets

"Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office

Closes
Oct 25, 2026, in 2 days
Traded
$26K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

14m-16m 40.8%

Next is 12m-14m at 23.8%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

14m-16m 40.8%12m-14m 23.8%16m-18m 14.1%18m+ 9.8%10m-12m 7%2 others 4.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
14m-16m
40.8%
Polymarket 43.5%(40.8% fair)polled, 24s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
14m-16m
Last price
43.5%
Fair, margin removed
40.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
12m-14m
23.8%
Polymarket 25.4%(23.8% fair)polled, 24s agoBest Yes 27.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $368 (3.68x)
Polymarket
Contract
12m-14m
Last price
25.4%
Fair, margin removed
23.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27.2¢
Sell Yes
23.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$368 (3.68x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
16m-18m
14.1%
Polymarket 15%(14.1% fair)polled, 24s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
16m-18m
Last price
15%
Fair, margin removed
14.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
18m+
9.8%
Polymarket 10.5%(9.8% fair)polled, 24s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
18m+
Last price
10.5%
Fair, margin removed
9.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
10m-12m
7%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
10m-12m
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
8m-10m
3.1%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
8m-10m
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
8m
1.4%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
8m
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 14m-16m
  • 12m-14m
  • 16m-18m

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for ""Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office". 14m-16m leads at 40.8%. Next is 12m-14m at 23.8%. $26K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to how much "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (October 23 - 25) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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