The Prediction Markets

Will 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law?

Closes
Nov 20, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$26K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

On Dec 10, 2026 98%

Next is On Nov 13, 2026 at 90%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
On Dec 10, 2026
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
On Dec 10, 2026
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
On Nov 13, 2026
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
On Nov 13, 2026
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
On Mar 13, 2027
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
On Mar 13, 2027
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
On Nov 19, 2027
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
On Nov 19, 2027
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$476
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: New York Times, United States Code, Federal Register

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • On Dec 10, 2026
  • On Nov 13, 2026
  • On Mar 13, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law?". On Dec 10, 2026 leads at 98%. Next is On Nov 13, 2026 at 90%. $26K has traded across 4 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 20, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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