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What the markets expect
Hawaii 8%
Next is Louisiana at 6.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 59 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Hawaii8%8%7¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 56 min agoNot listed9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Hawaii8%Polymarket 8%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Hawaii
8%
8%
7¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 56 min ago
Not listed
9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Hawaii
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Hawaii
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 56 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $4K
Louisiana6.5%6.5%6¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 56 min agoNot listed7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Louisiana6.5%Polymarket 6.5%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Louisiana
6.5%
6.5%
6¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 56 min ago
Not listed
7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Louisiana
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Louisiana
- Last price
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled 56 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $2K
Alabama5.5%5.5%5¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 56 min agoNot listed6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Alabama5.5%Polymarket 5.5%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Alabama
5.5%
5.5%
5¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 56 min ago
Not listed
6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Alabama
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Alabama
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled 56 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $4K
North Carolina5.3%5.3%4.2¢ bid, 6.4¢ askpolled, 56 min agoNot listed6.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)North Carolina5.3%Polymarket 5.3%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
North Carolina
5.3%
5.3%
4.2¢ bid, 6.4¢ ask
polled, 56 min ago
Not listed
6.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
North Carolina
5.3%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- North Carolina
- Last price
- 5.3%
- As of
- Polled 56 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,563 (15.6x)
- Volume
- $3K
New Jersey4.9%4.9%3.2¢ bid, 6.5¢ askpolled, 56 min agoNot listed6.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)New Jersey4.9%Polymarket 4.9%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
New Jersey
4.9%
4.9%
3.2¢ bid, 6.5¢ ask
polled, 56 min ago
Not listed
6.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
New Jersey
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- New Jersey
- Last price
- 4.9%
- As of
- Polled 56 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,538 (15.4x)
- Volume
- $730
South Carolina4.3%4.3%4.2¢ bid, 4.3¢ askpolled, 56 min agoNot listed4.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)South Carolina4.3%Polymarket 4.3%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
South Carolina
4.3%
4.3%
4.2¢ bid, 4.3¢ ask
polled, 56 min ago
Not listed
4.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
South Carolina
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- South Carolina
- Last price
- 4.3%
- As of
- Polled 56 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,326 (23.3x)
- Volume
- $1K
Mississippi4.2%4.2%3.2¢ bid, 5.1¢ askpolled, 56 min agoNot listed5.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)Mississippi4.2%Polymarket 4.2%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Mississippi
4.2%
4.2%
3.2¢ bid, 5.1¢ ask
polled, 56 min ago
Not listed
5.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Mississippi
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Mississippi
- Last price
- 4.2%
- As of
- Polled 56 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,961 (19.6x)
- Volume
- $1K
Rhode Island4.1%4.1%1.5¢ bid, 6.6¢ askpolled, 56 min agoNot listed6.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)Rhode Island4.1%Polymarket 4.1%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Rhode Island
4.1%
4.1%
1.5¢ bid, 6.6¢ ask
polled, 56 min ago
Not listed
6.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Rhode Island
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rhode Island
- Last price
- 4.1%
- As of
- Polled 56 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,515 (15.2x)
- Volume
- $2K
Maryland3.7%3.7%1.7¢ bid, 5.6¢ askpolled, 56 min agoNot listed5.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)Maryland3.7%Polymarket 3.7%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Maryland
3.7%
3.7%
1.7¢ bid, 5.6¢ ask
polled, 56 min ago
Not listed
5.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Maryland
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Maryland
- Last price
- 3.7%
- As of
- Polled 56 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,786 (17.9x)
- Volume
- $2K
Texas3.5%3.5%3¢ bid, 3.9¢ askpolled, 56 min agoNot listed3.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)Texas3.5%Polymarket 3.5%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Texas
3.5%
3.5%
3¢ bid, 3.9¢ ask
polled, 56 min ago
Not listed
3.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Texas
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Texas
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled 56 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,564 (25.6x)
- Volume
- $945
Show 9 more outcomesHide 9 outcomes
New York3.2%3.2%0.7¢ bid, 5.6¢ askpolled, 56 min agoNot listed5.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)New York3.2%Polymarket 3.2%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
New York
3.2%
3.2%
0.7¢ bid, 5.6¢ ask
polled, 56 min ago
Not listed
5.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
New York
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- New York
- Last price
- 3.2%
- As of
- Polled 56 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,786 (17.9x)
- Volume
- $2K
Virginia3%3%0.7¢ bid, 5.2¢ askpolled, 56 min agoNot listed5.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)Virginia3%Polymarket 3%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Virginia
3%
3%
0.7¢ bid, 5.2¢ ask
polled, 56 min ago
Not listed
5.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Virginia
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Virginia
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 56 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,923 (19.2x)
- Volume
- $2K
Maine2.9%2.9%1.2¢ bid, 4.5¢ askpolled, 56 min agoNot listed4.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)Maine2.9%Polymarket 2.9%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Maine
2.9%
2.9%
1.2¢ bid, 4.5¢ ask
polled, 56 min ago
Not listed
4.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Maine
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Maine
- Last price
- 2.9%
- As of
- Polled 56 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,222 (22.2x)
- Volume
- $3K
Connecticut2.7%2.7%0.3¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 56 min agoNot listed5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Connecticut2.7%Polymarket 2.7%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Connecticut
2.7%
2.7%
0.3¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 56 min ago
Not listed
5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Connecticut
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Connecticut
- Last price
- 2.7%
- As of
- Polled 56 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $462
Delaware2.2%2.2%1.7¢ bid, 2.7¢ askpolled, 56 min agoNot listed2.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)Delaware2.2%Polymarket 2.2%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Delaware
2.2%
2.2%
1.7¢ bid, 2.7¢ ask
polled, 56 min ago
Not listed
2.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Delaware
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Delaware
- Last price
- 2.2%
- As of
- Polled 56 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,704 (37.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
New Hampshire2.1%2.1%1.2¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 56 min agoNot listed3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)New Hampshire2.1%Polymarket 2.1%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
New Hampshire
2.1%
2.1%
1.2¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 56 min ago
Not listed
3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
New Hampshire
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- New Hampshire
- Last price
- 2.1%
- As of
- Polled 56 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $2K
Yes2%Not listed2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 59 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Yes2%Kalshi 2%polled, 59 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Yes
2%
Not listed
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 59 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Yes
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 59 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Yes
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 59 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Massachusetts1.8%1.8%1.7¢ bid, 1.8¢ askpolled, 56 min agoNot listed1.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)Massachusetts1.8%Polymarket 1.8%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Massachusetts
1.8%
1.8%
1.7¢ bid, 1.8¢ ask
polled, 56 min ago
Not listed
1.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Massachusetts
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Massachusetts
- Last price
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled 56 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,556 (55.6x)
- Volume
- $3K
Georgia1.5%1.5%1.2¢ bid, 1.7¢ askpolled, 56 min agoNot listed1.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)Georgia1.5%Polymarket 1.5%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Georgia
1.5%
1.5%
1.2¢ bid, 1.7¢ ask
polled, 56 min ago
Not listed
1.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Georgia
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Georgia
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled 56 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,882 (58.8x)
- Volume
- $2K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: nhc.noaa.gov
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: National Hurricane Center of the National Weather Service of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Hawaii
- Louisiana
- Alabama
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list Hawaii for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Will a Category 3 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before Dec 1, 2026?". Hawaii leads at 8%. Next is Louisiana at 6.5%. $44K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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