The Prediction Markets

Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top ___?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$24K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
57 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

50 52.5%

Next is 20 at 14.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 57 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
50
52.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 57 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
50
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled 57 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
20
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 57 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
20
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 57 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
5
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 57 min agoBest Yes 15.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $662 (6.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
5
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 57 min ago
Buy Yes
15.1¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$662 (6.62x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
10
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 57 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
10
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 57 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: coingecko.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 50
  • 20
  • 5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top ___?". 50 leads at 52.5%. Next is 20 at 14.5%. $24K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Will a coin launched in 2026 reach the top___?

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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