The Prediction Markets

Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$49K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

gemini-4-argon-high 75%

Next is Yes at 13.9%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
gemini-4-argon-high
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
gemini-4-argon-high
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yes
13.9%
Polymarket 13.9%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 24.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $403 (4.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
13.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
24.8¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$403 (4.03x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
claude-opus-5.5-high
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
claude-opus-5.5-high
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
claude-fable-5.1-max
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
claude-fable-5.1-max
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: lmarena.ai
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • gemini-4-argon-high
  • Yes
  • claude-opus-5.5-high

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list gemini-4-argon-high for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?". gemini-4-argon-high leads at 75%. Next is Yes at 13.9%. $49K has traded across 4 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, an AI model which is a Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) has the highest score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) is any model for which official publicly released documentation, such as a model card, technical paper, or official statements from its developers, clearly identifies diffusion or iterative denoising as a central part of its text-generation or decoding process. Results from the "Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two or models are tied for the top arena score at any point, this market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the joint-top ranked models are Diffusion Large Language Models. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on all published Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard rankings prior to the period of lack of availability.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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