The Prediction Markets

Will a Trump family member be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee?

Starts in 746 daysKickoff
Traded
$715.9M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

J.D. Vance 44%

Next is Marco Rubio at 15.2%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
J.D. Vance
44%
Polymarket 44%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 44.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $226 (2.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
J.D. Vance
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
44.2¢
Sell Yes
43.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$226 (2.26x)
Volume
$16.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Marco Rubio
15.2%
Polymarket 15.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 15.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $654 (6.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
15.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
15.3¢
Sell Yes
15.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$654 (6.54x)
Volume
$10.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Before 2028
4.3%
Kalshi 4.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before 2028
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$38K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ron DeSantis
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ron DeSantis
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$15.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Tucker Carlson
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tucker Carlson
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$13.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Ted Cruz
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ted Cruz
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$19.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Donald Trump
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$9.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
Donald Trump Jr.
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump Jr.
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$9.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Ivanka Trump
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ivanka Trump
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$8.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Thomas Massie
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thomas Massie
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$6.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 34 more outcomes
Brian Kemp
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brian Kemp
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$18.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Pete Hegseth
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$9.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Glenn Youngkin
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Glenn Youngkin
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$8.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Greg Abbott
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Greg Abbott
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$21.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Josh Hawley
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Hawley
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$20.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Marjorie Taylor Greene
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$6.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Rand Paul
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rand Paul
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$19.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$17.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom Cotton
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Cotton
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Candace Owens
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Candace Owens
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$933K
Trade this on Polymarket
Katie Britt
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Katie Britt
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$29.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Tulsi Gabbard
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tulsi Gabbard
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$14.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Byron Donalds
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Byron Donalds
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$44.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Doug Burgum
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Doug Burgum
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Elise Stefanik
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elise Stefanik
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$28.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Elon Musk
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$31.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Eric Trump
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Eric Trump
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$10.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Joe Kent
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joe Kent
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$9.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Joe Kent
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
John N. Kennedy
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$997K
Trade this on Polymarket
John McEntee
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
John McEntee
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$414K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kristi Noem
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kristi Noem
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$37.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Mike Pence
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Pence
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$43.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
Nikki Haley
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nikki Haley
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$10.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Steve Bannon
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steve Bannon
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$23.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Vivek Ramaswamy
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vivek Ramaswamy
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$16.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$36.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Tim Scott
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tim Scott
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Erika Kirk
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erika Kirk
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$19.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
John Thune
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Thune
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$38.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kim Kardashian
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kim Kardashian
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$28.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Matt Gaetz
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matt Gaetz
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$20.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Mike Johnson
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Johnson
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$884K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rick Scott
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rick Scott
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$816K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom Brady
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Brady
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$33.0M
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Associated Press, Reuters, Axios

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • J.D. Vance
  • Marco Rubio
  • Before 2028

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list J.D. Vance for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will a Trump family member be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee?". J.D. Vance leads at 44%. Next is Marco Rubio at 15.2%. $715.9M has traded across 44 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets