The Prediction Markets

Will Altria (MO) Q3 total domestic cigarettes shipment volume (sticks in billions) be above __?

Closes
Oct 29, 2026, in 6 days
Traded
$4K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

14.5B 87.5%

Next is 15B at 73.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
14.5B
87.5%
Polymarket 87.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
14.5B
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$819
Trade this on Polymarket
15B
73.5%
Polymarket 73.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
15B
Last price
73.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$658
Trade this on Polymarket
15.5B
63%
Polymarket 63%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
15.5B
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
16B
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
16B
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$389
Trade this on Polymarket
16.5B
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
16.5B
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 14.5B
  • 15B
  • 15.5B

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will Altria (MO) Q3 total domestic cigarettes shipment volume (sticks in billions) be above __?". 14.5B leads at 87.5%. Next is 15B at 73.5%. $4K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 29, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Altria's total domestic cigarettes shipment volume (sticks in billions) for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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