The Prediction Markets

Will Amber Heard be found liable for defaming Johnny Depp?

Closed
Jan 1, 2023
Traded
$132K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jan 1, 2023. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: fairfaxcounty.gov

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will Amber Heard be found liable for defaming Johnny Depp?". $132K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jan 1, 2023.

After a short, stormy marriage, actor Johnny Depp and actress Amber Heard divorced in 2017. Since their split, Heard has made allegations that she was physically abused by her ex-husband. If Amber Heard is found liable for defamation in the "CL-2019-2911 - JOHN C. DEPP, II V. AMBER LAURA HEARD" case before January 1, 2023, 12:00:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "liable" means Mr. Depp is entitled to any damages, regardless of the amount awarded to him, beyond restitution of legal fees. If the Johnny Depp vs. Amber Heard case results in a settlement and no judgement is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No". If the trial has not ended by the resolution date, this market will resolve to 50/50. Any appeals will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market will settle based on the first verdict rendered by the court in this case. Whether Johnny Depp is found at all liable in this case will have no effect on the resolution of this market. Whether Amber Heard is awarded any damages as a result of this case will have no effect on the resolution of this market. If Amber Heard if found liable for defamation before January 1, 2023, 12:00:00 AM ET, this market may resolve to "Yes" before that date. If the charges in this case are dismissed, no liability is assigned to Amber Heard, or the trial otherwise ends without the court arriving at a decision that finds Amber Heard liable for defamation of Johnny Depp, this market may resolve to "No" before January 1, 2023, 12:00:00 AM ET. The primary resolution source will be official information delivered by the ruling court (https://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/circuit/high-profile-cases); however, other credible reporting may be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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