The Prediction Markets

Will Andy Beshear announce a presidential run?

Closes
Oct 1, 2027, in 11 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

Before Oct 1, 2027 83%

Next is Before Jul 1, 2027 at 71%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Before Oct 1, 2027
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Oct 1, 2027
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jul 1, 2027
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jul 1, 2027
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jun 1, 2027
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jun 1, 2027
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before May 1, 2027
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before May 1, 2027
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Apr 1, 2027
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Apr 1, 2027
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$47
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Mar 1, 2027
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Mar 1, 2027
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Feb 1, 2027
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Feb 1, 2027
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$800
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2027
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Oct 1, 2027
  • Before Jul 1, 2027
  • Before Jun 1, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will Andy Beshear announce a presidential run?". Before Oct 1, 2027 leads at 83%. Next is Before Jul 1, 2027 at 71%. $2K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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