The Prediction Markets

Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$7.0M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Before Mar 1, 2027 74%

Next is Before Feb 1, 2027 at 66%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Before Mar 1, 2027
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Mar 1, 2027
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Feb 1, 2027
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Feb 1, 2027
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Dec 1, 2026
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2026
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Yes
28.6%
Polymarket 28.6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 29.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $337 (3.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
28.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
29.7¢
Sell Yes
27.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$337 (3.37x)
Volume
$60K
Trade this on Polymarket
December 31, 2028
27%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 37s agoPolymarket 19.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2028
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$637K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2028
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$152K
Trade this on Polymarket
December 31, 2027
14%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 37s agoPolymarket 12.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2027
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$5.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2027
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$311K
Trade this on Polymarket
June 30, 2027
9.8%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 37s agoPolymarket 10.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 30, 2027
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$409K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
June 30, 2027
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$105K
Trade this on Polymarket
December 31, 2026
2.4%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 37s agoPolymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2026
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$246K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2026
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$156K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: geography’s official government websites, ABC, The Source Agencies are

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Mar 1, 2027
  • Before Feb 1, 2027
  • Before Dec 1, 2026

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Before Mar 1, 2027 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?". Before Mar 1, 2027 leads at 74%. Next is Before Feb 1, 2027 at 66%. $7.0M has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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