The Prediction Markets

Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$79K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Before Jan 1, 2028 88%

Next is Before Mar 1, 2027 at 73.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2028
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2028
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$620
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Mar 1, 2027
73.5%
Kalshi 73.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Mar 1, 2027
Last price
73.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Feb 1, 2027
65.5%
Kalshi 65.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Feb 1, 2027
Last price
65.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jul 1, 2027
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jul 1, 2027
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$141
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Dec 1, 2026
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2026
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2027
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yes
28.2%
Polymarket 28.2%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 28.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $347 (3.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
28.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28.8¢
Sell Yes
27.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$347 (3.47x)
Volume
$60K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: geography’s official government websites, ABC, The Source Agencies are

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Jan 1, 2028
  • Before Mar 1, 2027
  • Before Feb 1, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Before Jan 1, 2028 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?". Before Jan 1, 2028 leads at 88%. Next is Before Mar 1, 2027 at 73.5%. $79K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any U.S. state enacts legislation that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying moratorium must temporarily or indefinitely prohibit, suspend, or pause the approval, permitting, construction, connection to the electrical grid or other utility infrastructure, or operation of new data centers, or a defined category of new data centers, within that state. Qualifying legislation includes any state bill that establishes such a data center moratorium. Qualifying legislation must be enacted into law in accordance with the applicable state’s constitutional and legal procedures. This generally requires final passage by the relevant state legislature and approval by the governor, becoming law without signature, or taking effect through a veto override or other lawful mechanism. Legislation that does not become law under the applicable state process, including vetoed bills that do not take effect, does not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official state legislative trackers, governor’s office announcements, secretary of state records, and other official information from the relevant state government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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