The Prediction Markets

Will anyone win the next French presidential election in the first round?

Closes
Apr 18, 2028, in 18 months
Traded
$99K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Marine Le Pen 65.8%

Next is douard Philippe at 15.3%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Marine Le Pen
65.8%
Polymarket 84%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 11%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
douard Philippe
15.3%
Polymarket 8.2%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 28%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 9.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,075 (10.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
8.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.3¢
Sell Yes
7.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,075 (10.8x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
13.4%
Polymarket 6.4%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 34.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
4.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
David Lisnard
6.6%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 11.7%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Lisnard
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
David Lisnard
Last price
11.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12.9¢
Sell Yes
10.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$775 (7.75x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Raphaël Glucksmann
5.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 11%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Yes
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
First-round winner
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
First-round winner
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jordan Bardella
1%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 0.2%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$790
Trade this on Polymarket
Bruno Retailleau
0.9%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 1.4%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
François Hollande
0.9%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 1.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$734
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Sébastien Lecornu
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 0.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sébastien Lecornu
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sébastien Lecornu
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$902
Trade this on Polymarket
Gabriel Attal
0.5%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 0.9%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$694
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Polymarket
François Ruffin
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Ruffin
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
François Ruffin
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$614
Trade this on Polymarket
Christine Lagarde
0.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christine Lagarde
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$699
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Christine Lagarde
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$860
Trade this on Polymarket
ric Zemmour
0.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
ric Zemmour
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$799
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
ric Zemmour
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$550
Trade this on Polymarket
Dominique de Villepin
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 0.4%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$719
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$685
Trade this on Polymarket
Marine Tondelier
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Tondelier
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$715
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Tondelier
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$667
Trade this on Polymarket
Sarah Knafo
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sarah Knafo
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$719
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sarah Knafo
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$424
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Conseil constitutionnel, French Ministry of the Interior

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Marine Le Pen
  • douard Philippe
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Marine Le Pen for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will anyone win the next French presidential election in the first round?". Marine Le Pen leads at 65.8%. Next is douard Philippe at 15.3%. $99K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 18, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets