The Prediction Markets

Will AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028?

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$77K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

President 58.9%

Next is Senate at 26.4%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

President 58.9%Senate 26.4%Neither 14.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
President
58.9%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
President
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Polymarket
Senate
26.4%
Polymarket 26.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $351 (3.51x)
Polymarket
Contract
Senate
Last price
26.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28.5¢
Sell Yes
23.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$351 (3.51x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Neither
14.7%
Polymarket 14.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $606 (6.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Neither
Last price
14.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16.5¢
Sell Yes
12.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$606 (6.06x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • President
  • Senate
  • Neither

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 3 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028?". President leads at 58.9%. Next is Senate at 26.4%. $77K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

This market will resolve based on the office, between United States Senator and President of the United States, that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez first officially announces that she is running for in the 2028 election cycle by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to resolve this market in favor of the corresponding outcome, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count. The formation of an exploratory committee, or a statement that she is exploring or considering a run, will not qualify, nor will any filing that is not accompanied by an announcement. If the listed individual does not announce that she is running for either listed office by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Neither". An announcement of a run for the US House of Representatives will not be relevant for purposes of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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