The Prediction Markets

Will Bitcoin be above $250k by 2027?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$2.0M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

72,000 99.7%

Next is 74,000 at 99.6%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
72,000
99.7%
Polymarket 100%polled, 16s agoPolymarket 99.6%polled, 16s agoPolymarket 99.2%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
72,000
Last price
100%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
72,000
Last price
99.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.6¢
Sell Yes
99.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
72,000
Last price
99.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.4¢
Sell Yes
99¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
74,000
99.6%
Polymarket 99.8%polled, 16s agoPolymarket 99.5%polled, 16s agoPolymarket 99.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
74,000
Last price
99.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.8¢
Sell Yes
99.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
74,000
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.5¢
Sell Yes
99.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
74,000
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.9¢
Sell Yes
99.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
76,000
98.7%
Polymarket 98.7%polled, 16s agoPolymarket 98.9%polled, 16s agoPolymarket 98.4%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
76,000
Last price
98.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
98.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
76,000
Last price
98.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
76,000
Last price
98.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
97.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
78,000
96.8%
Polymarket 97.7%polled, 16s agoPolymarket 96.4%polled, 16s agoPolymarket 95.3%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 96.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
78,000
Last price
97.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.9¢
Sell Yes
97.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$66K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
78,000
Last price
96.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96.7¢
Sell Yes
96.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
78,000
Last price
95.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96.4¢
Sell Yes
94.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
80,000
80.9%
Polymarket 83.3%polled, 16s agoPolymarket 79.7%polled, 16s agoPolymarket 77.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 78.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
80,000
Last price
83.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84.2¢
Sell Yes
82.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$94K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
80,000
Last price
79.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80.4¢
Sell Yes
78.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$124 (1.24x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
80,000
Last price
77.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78.1¢
Sell Yes
76.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
82,000
32.5%
Polymarket 29%polled, 16s agoPolymarket 34.5%polled, 16s agoPolymarket 37.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
82,000
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
82,000
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
82,000
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
84,000
5.2%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 16s agoPolymarket 5.5%polled, 16s agoPolymarket 7.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
84,000
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
84,000
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
84,000
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $250000
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $250000
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1.4M
Trade this on Kalshi
86,000
1.3%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 16s agoPolymarket 1.4%polled, 16s agoPolymarket 1.6%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
86,000
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$53K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
86,000
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
86,000
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
88,000
0.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 16s agoPolymarket 0.3%polled, 16s agoPolymarket 0.7%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
88,000
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
88,000
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
88,000
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
90,000
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 16s agoPolymarket 0.3%polled, 16s agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
90,000
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
90,000
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
90,000
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
92,000
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 16s agoPolymarket 0.2%polled, 16s agoPolymarket 0.4%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
92,000
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
92,000
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
92,000
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: binance.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CF Benchmarks

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 72,000
  • 74,000
  • 76,000

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 72,000 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will Bitcoin be above $250k by 2027?". 72,000 leads at 99.7%. Next is 74,000 at 99.6%. $2.0M has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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