The Prediction Markets

Will Britney Spears' father be removed or resign from her conservatorship by October 1, 2021?

Closed
Oct 1, 2021
Traded
$622K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Oct 1, 2021. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

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No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will Britney Spears' father be removed or resign from her conservatorship by October 1, 2021?". $622K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Oct 1, 2021.

In Response to Trader Inquiry: Per market rules, for this market to resolve to “Yes,” the removal or resignation of James Parnell Spears as conservator must be implemented before the resolution date. For example, an announcement which states that James Parnell Spears will be removed as conservator is not sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes” unless the actual removal occurs before the resolution date. In Response to Trader Inquiry: Per market rules, if James Parnell Spears is not the conservator at any point prior to the resolution date, the market will resolve to “Yes,” e.g. if he is suspended as conservator at any point prior to the resolution date, even if reinstated later, the market will resolve to “Yes.” This is a market on whether Britney Spears’ father, James Parnell Spears, will resign or be removed from her conservatorship by the resolution date, October 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if James Parnell Spears is no longer Britney's conservator at any point prior to the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be any credible news report or court order which confirms that James Parnell Spears is no longer Britney's conservator. This market will also resolve to "No" if James Parnell Spears is removed or resigns as conservator after the resolution date, but the announcement of this removal or resignation occurs before the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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