Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
Yes 14.5%
Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
Yes14.5%14.5%10¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 1 h ago19¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $526 (5.26x)Yes14.5%Polymarket 14.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Yes
14.5%
14.5%
10¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
19¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Yes
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Yes
- Last price
- 14.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
- Volume
- $1K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The leading outcome on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Yes
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
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Cover Yes and No across venues
Loading every outcome’s book…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Will Caedrel Reach Challenger Before the End of the Year?". Yes leads at 14.5%. $1K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.
This market will resolve "Yes" if Caedrel reaches the Challenger rank in League of Legends solo/duo ranked queue on any server on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". "Reaching Challenger" means Caedrel's account attains the Challenger tier in the ranked solo/duo queue, as displayed in the official in-game ranked ladder or on his verified account, at any point during the market period. Reaching Challenger in flex queue does not count unless otherwise specified. The account must be one publicly identified as belonging to Caedrel and streamed or otherwise confirmed as his. Reaching Challenger on a smurf or alternate account still counts, provided it is verifiably his and he publicly demonstrates it (e.g., on stream). If Caedrel is confirmed to have reached Challenger at any point in the period — even briefly — this market resolves "Yes". The primary resolution source will be the official League of Legends ranked ladder (via the in-game client or op.gg / official Riot data for his verified account) and Caedrel's official streams or channels; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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