The Prediction Markets

Will Celsius Network resume withdrawals by July 13?

Closed
Jul 13, 2022
Traded
$34K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jul 13, 2022. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: twitter.com

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will Celsius Network resume withdrawals by July 13?". $34K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jul 13, 2022.

The Celsius Network (celsius.network) is one of the largest cryptocurrency lending platforms in the market, and is estimated to have 1.7 million customers. On Sunday, June 12, 2022, the Celsius Network announced that it is suspending all withdrawals, Swaps, and transfers between accounts indefinitely "due to extreme market conditions". You can find "A Memo to the Celsius Community" which details the extent of their actions and their reasoning here: https://blog.celsius.network/a-memo-to-the-celsius-community-59532a06ecc6 This market will resolve to "Yes" if between June 13 and July 13, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET (inclusive), Celsius users are able to perform token withdrawals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any limits on withdrawals (e.g. maximum of X value of tokens in a specified period of time) will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If any withdrawals are allowed by users, it will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be information released by the Celsius Network's official or verified channels (https://celsius.network/, https://twitter.com/celsiusnetwork, https://blog.celsius.network/, https://www.instagram.com/celsiusnetwork/, etc.), or a verified withdrawal by a Celsius user; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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