The Prediction Markets

Will Chris Van Hollen announce a presidential run?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
8 min ago
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What the markets expect

Before Jan 1, 2028 61%

Next is Before Oct 1, 2027 at 59%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 8 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2028
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2028
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Oct 1, 2027
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Oct 1, 2027
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jul 1, 2027
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jul 1, 2027
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Apr 1, 2027
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Apr 1, 2027
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before May 1, 2027
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before May 1, 2027
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jun 1, 2027
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jun 1, 2027
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Mar 1, 2027
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Mar 1, 2027
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Feb 1, 2027
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Feb 1, 2027
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2027
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Jan 1, 2028
  • Before Oct 1, 2027
  • Before Jul 1, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will Chris Van Hollen announce a presidential run?". Before Jan 1, 2028 leads at 61%. Next is Before Oct 1, 2027 at 59%. $1K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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