The Prediction Markets

Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$63K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Los Angeles Galaxy 18%

Next is Sporting CP at 15%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 8 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Los Angeles Galaxy
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Los Angeles Galaxy
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sporting CP
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sporting CP
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Inter Miami CF
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Inter Miami CF
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Wydad Casablanca
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wydad Casablanca
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
CF Monterrey
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
CF Monterrey
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$352
Trade this on Kalshi
Real Madrid
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Real Madrid
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Galatasaray
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Galatasaray
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$9
Trade this on Kalshi
Manchester City
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Manchester City
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Al-Hilal
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Al-Hilal
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Botafogo
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Botafogo
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Yes
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Polymarket
Paris-Saint Germain
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paris-Saint Germain
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Los Angeles Galaxy
  • Sporting CP
  • Inter Miami CF

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Los Angeles Galaxy for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026?". Los Angeles Galaxy leads at 18%. Next is Sporting CP at 15%. $63K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This polymarket will resolve to "Yes" if Cristiano Ronaldo officially announces his retirement from club soccer by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To resolve "Yes", the announcement must clearly state that Ronaldo is retiring from club-level professional soccer. The announcement must come from Ronaldo himself or his official representatives. Retirement from international soccer alone will not qualify. The retirement must be intended to take effect immediately or prior to the start of the next club season following the announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Cristiano Ronaldo; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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