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What the markets expect
Mississippi 95.5%
Next is Minnesota at 67%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Mississippi95.5%95.5%93¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed98¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Mississippi95.5%Polymarket 95.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Mississippi
95.5%
95.5%
93¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
98¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Mississippi
95.5%
Polymarket 95.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Mississippi
- Last price
- 95.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 93¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
- Volume
- $7K
Minnesota67%67%52¢ bid, 82¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed82¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $122 (1.22x)Minnesota67%Polymarket 67%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Minnesota
67%
67%
52¢ bid, 82¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
82¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Minnesota
67%
Polymarket 67%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Minnesota
- Last price
- 67%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 82¢
- Sell Yes
- 52¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $122 (1.22x)
- Volume
- $3K
Indiana49.5%49.5%9¢ bid, 90¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed90¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $111 (1.11x)Indiana49.5%Polymarket 49.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Indiana
49.5%
49.5%
9¢ bid, 90¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
90¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Indiana
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Indiana
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 90¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $111 (1.11x)
- Volume
- $69
Wyoming49%49%15¢ bid, 83¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed83¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $120 (1.20x)Wyoming49%Polymarket 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Wyoming
49%
49%
15¢ bid, 83¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
83¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Wyoming
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Wyoming
- Last price
- 49%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 83¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $120 (1.20x)
- Volume
- $3K
Washington48.5%48.5%9¢ bid, 88¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed88¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $114 (1.14x)Washington48.5%Polymarket 48.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Washington
48.5%
48.5%
9¢ bid, 88¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
88¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Washington
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Washington
- Last price
- 48.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 88¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $114 (1.14x)
- Volume
- $4K
New Hampshire46%46%37¢ bid, 55¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed55¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $182 (1.82x)New Hampshire46%Polymarket 46%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
New Hampshire
46%
46%
37¢ bid, 55¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
55¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $182 (1.82x)
New Hampshire
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- New Hampshire
- Last price
- 46%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 55¢
- Sell Yes
- 37¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $182 (1.82x)
- Volume
- $11K
Missouri45.5%45.5%12¢ bid, 79¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed79¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $127 (1.27x)Missouri45.5%Polymarket 45.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Missouri
45.5%
45.5%
12¢ bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
79¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Missouri
45.5%
Polymarket 45.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Missouri
- Last price
- 45.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
Utah45.5%45.5%15¢ bid, 76¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed76¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $132 (1.32x)Utah45.5%Polymarket 45.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Utah
45.5%
45.5%
15¢ bid, 76¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
76¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Utah
45.5%
Polymarket 45.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Utah
- Last price
- 45.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 76¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $132 (1.32x)
- Volume
- $598
Maine42%42%8¢ bid, 76¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed76¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $132 (1.32x)Maine42%Polymarket 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Maine
42%
42%
8¢ bid, 76¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
76¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Maine
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Maine
- Last price
- 42%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 76¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $132 (1.32x)
- Volume
- $158
Louisiana41.5%41.5%7¢ bid, 76¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed76¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $132 (1.32x)Louisiana41.5%Polymarket 41.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Louisiana
41.5%
41.5%
7¢ bid, 76¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
76¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Louisiana
41.5%
Polymarket 41.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Louisiana
- Last price
- 41.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 76¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $132 (1.32x)
- Volume
- $278
Show 33 more outcomesHide 33 outcomes
Arkansas41%41%11¢ bid, 71¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed71¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $141 (1.41x)Arkansas41%Polymarket 41%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Arkansas
41%
41%
11¢ bid, 71¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
71¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Arkansas
41%
Polymarket 41%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Arkansas
- Last price
- 41%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 71¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $141 (1.41x)
- Volume
- $366
Massachusetts39.5%39.5%15¢ bid, 64¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed64¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $156 (1.56x)Massachusetts39.5%Polymarket 39.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Massachusetts
39.5%
39.5%
15¢ bid, 64¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
64¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Massachusetts
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Massachusetts
- Last price
- 39.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 64¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $156 (1.56x)
- Volume
- $201
New Mexico39.5%39.5%8¢ bid, 71¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed71¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $141 (1.41x)New Mexico39.5%Polymarket 39.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
New Mexico
39.5%
39.5%
8¢ bid, 71¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
71¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $141 (1.41x)
New Mexico
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- New Mexico
- Last price
- 39.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 71¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $141 (1.41x)
- Volume
- $695
West Virginia39.5%39.5%8¢ bid, 71¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed71¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $141 (1.41x)West Virginia39.5%Polymarket 39.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
West Virginia
39.5%
39.5%
8¢ bid, 71¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
71¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $141 (1.41x)
West Virginia
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- West Virginia
- Last price
- 39.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 71¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $141 (1.41x)
- Volume
- $96
Colorado33%33%8¢ bid, 58¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed58¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $172 (1.72x)Colorado33%Polymarket 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Colorado
33%
33%
8¢ bid, 58¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
58¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Colorado
33%
Polymarket 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Colorado
- Last price
- 33%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 58¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $172 (1.72x)
- Volume
- $99
Rhode Island33%33%7¢ bid, 59¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed59¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $169 (1.69x)Rhode Island33%Polymarket 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Rhode Island
33%
33%
7¢ bid, 59¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
59¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Rhode Island
33%
Polymarket 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rhode Island
- Last price
- 33%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 59¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $169 (1.69x)
- Volume
- $86
Idaho30.5%30.5%5¢ bid, 56¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed56¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $179 (1.79x)Idaho30.5%Polymarket 30.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Idaho
30.5%
30.5%
5¢ bid, 56¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
56¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Idaho
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Idaho
- Last price
- 30.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 56¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $179 (1.79x)
- Volume
- $3K
Oregon25.8%25.8%3.4¢ bid, 48.2¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed48.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $207 (2.07x)Oregon25.8%Polymarket 25.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $207 (2.07x)
Oregon
25.8%
25.8%
3.4¢ bid, 48.2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
48.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $207 (2.07x)
Oregon
25.8%
Polymarket 25.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $207 (2.07x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Oregon
- Last price
- 25.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 48.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $207 (2.07x)
- Volume
- $20K
Vermont17.8%17.8%2.5¢ bid, 33.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed33.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $302 (3.02x)Vermont17.8%Polymarket 17.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $302 (3.02x)
Vermont
17.8%
17.8%
2.5¢ bid, 33.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
33.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $302 (3.02x)
Vermont
17.8%
Polymarket 17.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $302 (3.02x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Vermont
- Last price
- 17.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 33.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $302 (3.02x)
- Volume
- $5K
Japan14.5%14.5%13¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed16¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Japan14.5%Polymarket 14.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Japan
14.5%
14.5%
13¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
16¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Japan
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Japan
- Last price
- 14.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $26K
Saudi Arabia14.5%14.5%12¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed17¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Saudi Arabia14.5%Polymarket 14.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Saudi Arabia
14.5%
14.5%
12¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
17¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Saudi Arabia
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Saudi Arabia
- Last price
- 14.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $1K
Germany14%14%13¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed15¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Germany14%Polymarket 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Germany
14%
14%
13¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
15¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Germany
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Germany
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $21K
Hawaii12.5%12.5%6¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed19¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $526 (5.26x)Hawaii12.5%Polymarket 12.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Hawaii
12.5%
12.5%
6¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
19¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Hawaii
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Hawaii
- Last price
- 12.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
- Volume
- $736
Israel12.5%12.5%9¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed16¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Israel12.5%Polymarket 12.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Israel
12.5%
12.5%
9¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
16¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Israel
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Israel
- Last price
- 12.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $32K
South Korea12.5%12.5%9¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed16¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $625 (6.25x)South Korea12.5%Polymarket 12.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
South Korea
12.5%
12.5%
9¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
16¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
South Korea
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- South Korea
- Last price
- 12.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $17K
Portugal10.5%10.5%0.9¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed20¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $500 (5.00x)Portugal10.5%Polymarket 10.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Portugal
10.5%
10.5%
0.9¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
20¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Portugal
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Portugal
- Last price
- 10.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $151
Venezuela9%9%6¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed12¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Venezuela9%Polymarket 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Venezuela
9%
9%
6¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
12¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Venezuela
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Venezuela
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $245
Italy7.5%7.5%6¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Italy7.5%Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Italy
7.5%
7.5%
6¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Italy
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Italy
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $31K
Syria7.5%7.5%6¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Syria7.5%Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Syria
7.5%
7.5%
6¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Syria
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Syria
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $2K
Russia7.1%7.1%5.1¢ bid, 9.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed9.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)Russia7.1%Polymarket 7.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Russia
7.1%
7.1%
5.1¢ bid, 9.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
9.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Russia
7.1%
Polymarket 7.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Russia
- Last price
- 7.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,099 (11.0x)
- Volume
- $13K
North Korea7%7%6¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)North Korea7%Polymarket 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
North Korea
7%
7%
6¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
North Korea
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- North Korea
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $46K
Oman6.1%6.1%0.4¢ bid, 11.8¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed11.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $847 (8.47x)Oman6.1%Polymarket 6.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $847 (8.47x)
Oman
6.1%
6.1%
0.4¢ bid, 11.8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
11.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $847 (8.47x)
Oman
6.1%
Polymarket 6.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $847 (8.47x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Oman
- Last price
- 6.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 11.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $847 (8.47x)
- Volume
- $4K
Before Jul 1, 20276%Not listed6%2¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 2 min ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Before Jul 1, 20276%Kalshi 6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Before Jul 1, 2027
6%
Not listed
6%
2¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Before Jul 1, 2027
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
India6%6%5¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)India6%Polymarket 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
India
6%
6%
5¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
India
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- India
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $15K
Ukraine5.6%5.6%3.5¢ bid, 7.7¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed7.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)Ukraine5.6%Polymarket 5.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Ukraine
5.6%
5.6%
3.5¢ bid, 7.7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
7.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Ukraine
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ukraine
- Last price
- 5.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,299 (13.0x)
- Volume
- $7K
Mexico5%5%4¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Mexico5%Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Mexico
5%
5%
4¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Mexico
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Mexico
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $6K
Belarus4.8%4.8%2.9¢ bid, 6.7¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed6.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)Belarus4.8%Polymarket 4.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Belarus
4.8%
4.8%
2.9¢ bid, 6.7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
6.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Belarus
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Belarus
- Last price
- 4.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,493 (14.9x)
- Volume
- $5K
Pakistan4.5%4.5%4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Pakistan4.5%Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Pakistan
4.5%
4.5%
4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Pakistan
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Pakistan
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $8K
Canada3.1%3.1%2.1¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Canada3.1%Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Canada
3.1%
3.1%
2.1¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Canada
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Canada
- Last price
- 3.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $5K
Taiwan3%3%2.8¢ bid, 3.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed3.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)Taiwan3%Polymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Taiwan
3%
3%
2.8¢ bid, 3.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
3.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Taiwan
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Taiwan
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,226 (32.3x)
- Volume
- $88K
Yes2.3%2.3%1.4¢ bid, 3.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed3.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)Yes2.3%Polymarket 2.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Yes
2.3%
2.3%
1.4¢ bid, 3.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
3.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Yes
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Yes
- Last price
- 2.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,226 (32.3x)
- Volume
- $4K
Before Jan 1, 20272.1%Not listed2.1%2.1¢ bid, 2.9¢ askpolled, 2 min ago2.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)Before Jan 1, 20272.1%Kalshi 2.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Before Jan 1, 2027
2.1%
Not listed
2.1%
2.1¢ bid, 2.9¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
2.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Before Jan 1, 2027
2.1%
Kalshi 2.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- Last price
- 2.1%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,448 (34.5x)
- Volume
- $421K
Lebanon1.1%1.1%0.3¢ bid, 1.9¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed1.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)Lebanon1.1%Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Lebanon
1.1%
1.1%
0.3¢ bid, 1.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
1.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Lebanon
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Lebanon
- Last price
- 1.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,263 (52.6x)
- Volume
- $33K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: twitter.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Guardian, local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in Iran, Donald Trump
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Mississippi
- Minnesota
- Indiana
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list Mississippi for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Will Donald Trump visit Iran?". Mississippi leads at 95.5%. Next is Minnesota at 67%. $1.4M has traded across 43 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.
Kalshi event status: open
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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