The Prediction Markets

Will ECDC announce a new COVID-19 "Variant of Concern" before August 2022?

Closed
Jul 31, 2022
Traded
$25K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jul 31, 2022. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ecdc.europa.eu

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will ECDC announce a new COVID-19 "Variant of Concern" before August 2022?". $25K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jul 31, 2022.

This is a market on whether the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) will designate any additional COVID-19 variant as a "Variant of Concern (VOC)" by July 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if ECDC lists any variant of COVID-19 beside the already-listed B.1.351, P.1, B.1.617.2, B.1.1.529, as a VOC by July 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is official information from the ECDC website, in particular the "Variants of Concern (VOC)" table available at the following link: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/variants-concern. At the time of this market's creation, only the following variants are listed on the VOC table: B.1.351 (Beta), P.1 (Gamma), B.1.617.2 (Delta), and B.1.1.529 (Omicron). Other links to the ECDC website may be used if the location of the information specifically designated as the resolution source for this market changes. If the ECDC website is unavailable on the resolution date, the resolution source will be checked at 12:00 PM ET daily for 7 days until the website becomes available. If the website is still not available at that time, this market will resolve to "No."

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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