The Prediction Markets

Will Elon Musk pay TSA salaries?

Closed
Apr 14, 2026
Traded
$61K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 14, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 196 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Yes
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 4720 h agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$61K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The leading outcome on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Yes

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will Elon Musk pay TSA salaries?". Yes last traded at 1%. $61K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 14, 2026.

Elon Musk offered to pay the salaries of Transportation Security Administration employees affected by the Department of Homeland Security shutdown that began on February 14, 2026 (see: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2035306094281855336?s=20). This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Elon Musk, or a company for which Elon Musk is the largest shareholder, pays any Transportation Security Administration (TSA) employee for time during the shutdown for which that employee has not been paid by the U.S. government by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying compensation may be provided directly to affected TSA employees, indirectly through a third-party vehicle, or through funding provided to the U.S. government for the expressed purpose of compensating affected TSA employees. An official announcement from the United States government, or from Elon Musk and subsequently confirmed by the United States government, that Elon Musk will provide qualifying compensation to any TSA employee will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether receipt of payment has yet been publicly confirmed. Offers, statements of intent, proposals, or other supportive statements that are not accompanied by an official announcement as described above will not qualify. Payments that will later be returned once DHS funding is supplied may still qualify, provided Elon Musk supplies the initial monetary payment. Assistance that is not monetary payment, including donations of food, transportation, or other non-wage benefits, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Elon Musk, the United States federal government, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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