The Prediction Markets

Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026?

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$98K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

1.10 38.5%

Next is 1.20 at 13.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
1.10
38.5%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.10
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.20
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.20
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.22
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.22
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$731
Trade this on Polymarket
1.05
7.2%
Polymarket 7.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.05
Last price
7.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
6.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.00
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.00
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.26
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.26
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.24
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.24
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.30
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.30
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.40
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.40
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.35
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.35
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: investing.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 1.10
  • 1.20
  • 1.22

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026?". 1.10 leads at 38.5%. Next is 1.20 at 13.5%. $98K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com high price (“H”) for any EUR/USD hourly candle for an hour on or before the listed end date (ET) is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Data for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday. This market will resolve as soon as any finalized EUR/USD hourly candle is equal to or above the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized. A candle starting at 11:00 PM ET on a given date will be considered to be on that date. This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “H” figure located at the top of the EUR/USD Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (e.g., https://www.investing.com/currencies/eur-usd-chart).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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