The Prediction Markets

Will Fabiano Caruana win the United States Chess Championship?

Closed
Oct 18, 2021
Traded
$21K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Oct 18, 2021. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: uschesschamps.com

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will Fabiano Caruana win the United States Chess Championship?". $21K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Oct 18, 2021.

This is a market on whether Fabiano Caruana will win the 2021 United States Chess Championship. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Fabiano Caruana places 1st place and is the winner of the United States Chess Championship that takes place at the Saint Louis Chess Club on October 5th – October 18th, 2021. If he drops out of the tournament this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled, the market will resolve 50-50.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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