The Prediction Markets

Will Glean's valuation hit __ by December 31?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$66K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

6B 49%

Next is 5B at 34.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
6B
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
6B
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
5B
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
5B
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
9B
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
9B
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
4B
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
4B
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
8B
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
8B
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
7.5B
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
7.5B
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
5.5B
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.5B
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
10B
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
10B
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
12.5B
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
12.5B
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
15B
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
15B
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: fe.secondmarket.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 6B
  • 5B
  • 9B

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will Glean's valuation hit __ by December 31?". 6B leads at 49%. Next is 5B at 34.5%. $66K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Glean's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 1, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company’s public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-77127aa8-38b7-4737-b764-a5024345b19b/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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