The Prediction Markets

Will Google (GOOGL) Q3 YouTube ads revenue be above __?

Closes
Oct 28, 2026, in 6 days
Traded
$4K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

11.2B 81%

Next is 11.4B at 74.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
11.2B
81%
Polymarket 81%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
11.2B
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$999
Trade this on Polymarket
11.4B
74.5%
Polymarket 74.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
11.4B
Last price
74.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$236
Trade this on Polymarket
11.6B
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
11.6B
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
11.8B
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
11.8B
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
12B
10.3%
Polymarket 10.3%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 15.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $658 (6.58x)
Polymarket
Contract
12B
Last price
10.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15.2¢
Sell Yes
5.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$658 (6.58x)
Volume
$871
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 11.2B
  • 11.4B
  • 11.6B

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will Google (GOOGL) Q3 YouTube ads revenue be above __?". 11.2B leads at 81%. Next is 11.4B at 74.5%. $4K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 28, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's YouTube ads revenue for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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