The Prediction Markets

Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 d ago
Share

What the markets expect

7.000+ 58.5%

Next is 9.000+ at 17.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

7.000+ 58.5%9.000+ 17.5%8.000+ 15.2%10.000+ 8.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 38 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
7.000+
58.5%
Polymarket 63.5%(58.5% fair)polled, 38 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
7.000+
Last price
63.5%
Fair, margin removed
58.5%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$134
Trade this on Polymarket
9.000+
17.5%
Polymarket 19%(17.5% fair)polled, 38 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
9.000+
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
17.5%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$841
Trade this on Polymarket
8.000+
15.2%
Polymarket 16.5%(15.2% fair)polled, 38 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
8.000+
Last price
16.5%
Fair, margin removed
15.2%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
10.000+
8.8%
Polymarket 9.5%(8.8% fair)polled, 38 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
10.000+
Last price
9.5%
Fair, margin removed
8.8%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: fred.stlouisfed.org

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 7.000+
  • 9.000+
  • 8.000+

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 4 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?". 7.000+ leads at 58.5%. Next is 9.000+ at 17.5%. $23K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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