The Prediction Markets

Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2021 Speed Chess Championship Main Event?

Closed
Dec 19, 2021
Traded
$54K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Dec 19, 2021. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: chess.com

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2021 Speed Chess Championship Main Event?". $54K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Dec 19, 2021.

The 2021 Speed Chess Championship is a multi-event series featuring top players competing in fast-paced games for a piece of the $232,000 prize fund. The event started on March 31 with the Bullet Chess Championship, followed by the Junior Speed Chess Championship, Grand Prix, Super Swiss, and ending with the Main Event on December 19. The Main Event of the 2021 Speed Chess Championship unites 12 invited players with four others who qualified from the other events. The main event starts on November 12 and ends on December 19. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hikaru Nakamura places 1st and is the winner of the 2021 SCC Main Event. If he finishes in any lower place, drops out of the tournament or the tournament is cancelled, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, the tournament is not completed and the winner is not announced by January 1, 2022, this market will resolve 50-50.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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