The Prediction Markets

Will Ilhan Omar's citizenship be revoked in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$384K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

December 31 21.5%

Next is June 30, 2027 at 12.5%. The venues differ most on Yes (Polymarket 1.6%, Kalshi 8%), a 6.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
December 31
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Polymarket
June 30, 2027
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 30, 2027
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
YesArb
6.4%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$52K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yes
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$231K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 7¢ nets 510 bps before fees.

October 31
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 31
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
December 31, 2026
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2026
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Yes on Polymarket at 1.9¢, sell on Kalshi at 7¢ (510 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Likely the same bet: we have not reviewed these rules side by side yet

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: USCIS, U.S. Department of State, PACER
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • December 31
  • June 30, 2027
  • Yes

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list December 31 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will Ilhan Omar's citizenship be revoked in 2026?". December 31 leads at 21.5%. Next is June 30, 2027 at 12.5%. $384K has traded across 5 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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