The Prediction Markets

Will Katie Zacharia be officially given a new role in the Trump administration by December 31?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$7K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Yes 32.5%

Next is Katie Zacharia at 30%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Yes
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Katie Zacharia
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Katie Zacharia
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The White House

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Yes
  • Katie Zacharia

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Yes for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will Katie Zacharia be officially given a new role in the Trump administration by December 31?". Yes leads at 32.5%. Next is Katie Zacharia at 30%. $7K has traded across 2 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or his administration officially nominates or appoints Katie Zacharia to a new role in the administration, other than White House Press Secretary, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying role is any official position within the U.S. federal government to which Katie Zacharia is formally nominated, appointed, or designated by Donald Trump, the Executive Office of the President, or a federal department or agency, as confirmed by official government channels. This includes, but is not limited to, Cabinet and sub-Cabinet positions, Executive Office of the President and White House staff positions, agency and department positions, ambassadorships, and seats on federal boards, commissions, councils, or advisory committees. Acting, interim, and temporary appointments will qualify if formally made. Unpaid positions will qualify only if they are formal federal appointments, such as a seat on a federal advisory committee or appointment as a special government employee. A position Katie Zacharia previously held, including her former position at the Department of Homeland Security, will qualify if she is formally re-appointed to it. If Katie Zacharia is given a dual role that includes White House Press Secretary, the additional role will qualify only if it is a distinct position not ordinarily held by the White House Press Secretary, such as White House Communications Director. Rank or honorific titles that accompany the Press Secretary position, such as "Assistant to the President" or "Deputy Assistant to the President," will not qualify. Informal or unofficial advisory roles, campaign roles, political party roles (including with the Republican National Committee), and roles with private entities, including the Trump Organization and Trump Media & Technology Group, will not qualify. Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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