The Prediction Markets

Will Lost Ark be #1 for peak players on Steam on February 25?

Closed
Feb 25, 2022
Traded
$42K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Feb 25, 2022. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: store.steampowered.com

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will Lost Ark be #1 for peak players on Steam on February 25?". $42K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Feb 25, 2022.

This is a market on whether Lost Ark will be #1 on Steam in terms of peak players on February 25, 2022 at 11:59 PM ET. Results of this market will be decided by official Steam player count ("Peak Today") available at https://store.steampowered.com/stats/.  If Lost Ark is #1 or tied for the #1 spot, the market will resolve "Yes", and otherwise "No."  In the event the resolution source is not available on February 25, 2022 at 11:59 PM ET, another credible source will be chosen. If no other credible sources are available, the source will be checked every 24 hours until March 3, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, when the market will resolve 50-50. ------------------ The games listed at the resolution source will be ranked from highest to lowest based on the amounts in the "Peak Today" column. In the case of ties, the market will use standard competition ranking ("1224" ranking),  where each game's ranking number is 1 plus the number of games ranked above it.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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