The Prediction Markets

Will Lyft (LYFT) Q3 rides be above __?

Closes
Nov 5, 2026, in 14 days
Traded
$7K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 258 million 88%

Next is Above 260 million at 86%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 258 million
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 258 million
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$43
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 260 million
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 260 million
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$38
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 262 million
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 262 million
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$403
Trade this on Kalshi
255M
81.5%
Polymarket 81.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
255M
Last price
81.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
64.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$410
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 264 million
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 264 million
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$358
Trade this on Kalshi
265M
70%
Polymarket 70%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
265M
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$437
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 266 million
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 266 million
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$339
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 268 million
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 268 million
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$380
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 270 million
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 270 million
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$870
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 272 million
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 272 million
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$834
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
275M
43.5%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
275M
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$520
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 274 million
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 274 million
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$312
Trade this on Kalshi
295M
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
295M
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$65
Trade this on Polymarket
285M
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
285M
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 276 million
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 276 million
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$44
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 278 million
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 278 million
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$542
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 258 million
  • Above 260 million
  • Above 262 million

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 258 million for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will Lyft (LYFT) Q3 rides be above __?". Above 258 million leads at 88%. Next is Above 260 million at 86%. $7K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lyft's rides for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, are above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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