The Prediction Markets

Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?

Closes
Jan 1, 2031, in 51 months
Traded
$46K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Yes 10.5%

The venues differ most on Yes (Polymarket 11%, Kalshi 9.9%), a 1.1-point gap.

Yes 10.5%No 89.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
YesArb
10.5%
Polymarket 11%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 9.9%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yes
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 9.9¢ and selling on Polymarket at 10¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Yes on Kalshi at 9.9¢, sell on Polymarket at 10¢ (10 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2031, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: cityandstateny.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: City of New York, the Office of Mayor of New York City, New York City Council
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2031, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The leading outcome on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Yes

Live prices for Yes

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Cover Yes and No across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?". Yes leads at 10.5%. $46K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2031.

Zohran Mamdani has proposed raising New York City's minimum wage to $30 an hour by 2030. You can read more about that here: https://www.cityandstateny.com/policy/2025/02/mamdani-unveils-30-30-minimum-wage-push-part-mayoral-campaign/403015/?oref=csny-homepage-top-story This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur: 1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election. 2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a minimum wage of at least $30 an hour, effective by December 31, 2030, or earlier. The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated minimum wage into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify. The enactment of a policy that initiates a structured increase of the minimum wage to at least $30 an hour in NYC over the course of several years will qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution, so long as that policy explicitly outlines it will achieve that level by the stated date. Enactment of limited or temporary pilots which are not formally intended for citywide expansion (e.g., policies that explicitly cover only select boroughs, neighborhoods, or time periods) will not count. Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for restaurant workers, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general policy of a $30 per hour minimum wage in New York City by 2030 is enacted. If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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