The Prediction Markets

Will Micron (MU) close above ___ end of November?

Closes
Nov 30, 2026, in 24 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
8 min ago
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What the markets expect

760 36.5%

Next is 780 at 31%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 8 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
760
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
760
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Polymarket
780
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
780
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$930
Trade this on Polymarket
800
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
800
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$376
Trade this on Polymarket
820
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
820
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Polymarket
840
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
840
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$71
Trade this on Polymarket
860
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
860
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$127
Trade this on Polymarket
880
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
880
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$144
Trade this on Polymarket
900
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
900
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$75
Trade this on Polymarket
920
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
920
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$112
Trade this on Polymarket
940
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
940
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 3 more outcomes
960
8.7%
Polymarket 8.7%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 14.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $676 (6.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
960
Last price
8.7%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
14.8¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$676 (6.76x)
Volume
$116
Trade this on Polymarket
980
8.1%
Polymarket 8.1%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 13.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $741 (7.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
980
Last price
8.1%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
13.5¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$741 (7.41x)
Trade this on Polymarket
1,000
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 12.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $775 (7.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
1,000
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
12.9¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$775 (7.75x)
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 760
  • 780
  • 800

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will Micron (MU) close above ___ end of November?". 760 leads at 36.5%. Next is 780 at 31%. $2K has traded across 13 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) on the final trading day of November 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the month, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MU%2FUSD.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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