The Prediction Markets

Will more than 2.10 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day between Jan. 1 and Jan. 11?

Closed
Jan 12, 2022
Traded
$75K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jan 12, 2022. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: tsa.gov

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will more than 2.10 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day between Jan. 1 and Jan. 11?". $75K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jan 12, 2022.

This is a market on whether more than 2,100,000 people will travel through a TSA checkpoint on any single day on or after January 1 2022 and on or before January 11 2022. The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughput as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the TSA reports a daily checkpoint throughput of more than 2,100,000 for any day on or after January 1 and on or before January 11 2022. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the date of January 11 2022 or on any date before that if the target is reached. If the target has not been reached and if data is not available for any of the days from January 1 to January 11 by January 15 2022 the market will resolve to 50-50. Any revisions published to data for dates January 1 2022 and onward prior to the release of data for January 11 will be considered.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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