The Prediction Markets

Will MrBeast hit ___ Billion views by October 31?

Closes
Oct 31, 2026, in 9 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

144 billion 100%

Next is 144.5 billion at 90.2%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
144 billion
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 46s ago
Polymarket
Contract
144 billion
Last price
100%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$63
Trade this on Polymarket
144.5 billion
90.2%
Polymarket 90.2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
144.5 billion
Last price
90.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
81.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$311
Trade this on Polymarket
145 billion
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
145 billion
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 144 billion
  • 144.5 billion
  • 145 billion

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will MrBeast hit ___ Billion views by October 31?". 144 billion leads at 100%. Next is 144.5 billion at 90.2%. $1K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) hits at least the specified number of views by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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