The Prediction Markets

Will MrBeast's Squid Game video reach 60M views in its first week?

Closed
Dec 1, 2021
Traded
$24K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Dec 1, 2021. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: youtube.com

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will MrBeast's Squid Game video reach 60M views in its first week?". $24K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Dec 1, 2021.

This is a market on a public view count of a new video of MrBeast on his Youtube channel. According to the creator, his new video will be a "Real life Squid Game with 456 random people competing in exact recreations of every game" and is planned to go public on November 24, 4 PM ET. The video used for this market will be the first video published on MrBeast's Youtube channel (https://www.youtube.com/c/MrBeast6000/), which refers to Squid Game, after this market's inception time, November 24, 2 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes", if MrBeast's Squid Game has 60,000,000 or more views by the resolution time, December 1, 2021, 4 PM ET, according to the Youtube public view count under the video. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". The view count will be checked daily at 4 PM ET to see if 60M views was reached, and finally on the resolution time, December 1st 2021, 4 PM ET. If the data is unavailable then, this market will resolve in a good faith as soon as the data is available.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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