The Prediction Markets

Will NASA have confirmed more than 4580 existing exoplanets by November 27?

Closed
Nov 27, 2021
Traded
$83K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Nov 27, 2021. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: exoplanets.nasa.gov

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will NASA have confirmed more than 4580 existing exoplanets by November 27?". $83K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Nov 27, 2021.

This is a market on the number of confirmed exoplanets reported by NASA, on the resolution time: November 27th 2021, 8 PM ET. If the number of confirmed exoplanets as reported by NASA is greater than 4,580 on resolution time, this market resolves to ""Yes"". Otherwise, this market resolves to ""No"". The resolution source for this market is the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), which reports the number of confirmed exoplanets on their Exoplanet Exploration Program website: https://exoplanets.nasa.gov/ ---------------- An exoplanet is any planet beyond our solar system. Most orbit other stars, but free-floating exoplanets, called rogue planets, orbit the galactic center and are untethered to any star. When this market was created (November 15), the number of confirmed exoplanets was 4569.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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