The Prediction Markets

Will New Hampshire schedule its 2028 presidential primary before South Carolina?

Closes
Jan 22, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$28K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Yes 94%

Next is Kamala Harris at 27.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 7 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Yes
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yes
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kamala Harris
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kamala Harris
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Raphael Warnock
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raphael Warnock
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jon Ossoff
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jon Ossoff
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cory Booker
18.1%
Polymarket 18.1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cory Booker
Last price
18.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
14.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gavin Newsom
8.9%
Polymarket 8.9%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 14.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $680 (6.80x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gavin Newsom
Last price
8.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.7¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$680 (6.80x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
J.B. Pritzker
8.4%
Polymarket 8.4%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 16.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $621 (6.21x)
Polymarket
Contract
J.B. Pritzker
Last price
8.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16.1¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$621 (6.21x)
Volume
$550
Trade this on Polymarket
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$492
Trade this on Polymarket
Wes Moore
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wes Moore
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$423
Trade this on Polymarket
Rahm Emanuel
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rahm Emanuel
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$340
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 11 more outcomes
James Talarico
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Talarico
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$365
Trade this on Polymarket
Michelle Obama
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michelle Obama
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$325
Trade this on Polymarket
Mark Kelly
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Kelly
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$859
Trade this on Polymarket
Jon Stewart
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jon Stewart
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$486
Trade this on Polymarket
Pete Buttigieg
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Buttigieg
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$337
Trade this on Polymarket
Stephen A. Smith
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stephen A. Smith
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$305
Trade this on Polymarket
Roy Cooper
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Roy Cooper
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$295
Trade this on Polymarket
Josh Shapiro
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Shapiro
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$370
Trade this on Polymarket
Bernie Sanders
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bernie Sanders
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$422
Trade this on Polymarket
Andy Beshear
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andy Beshear
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$315
Trade this on Polymarket
Ro Khanna
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ro Khanna
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$315
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: New Hampshire Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Yes
  • Kamala Harris
  • Raphael Warnock

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Yes for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will New Hampshire schedule its 2028 presidential primary before South Carolina?". Yes leads at 94%. Next is Kamala Harris at 27.5%. $28K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 22, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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