The Prediction Markets

Will Novak Djokovic announce his retirement by...?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$22K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

Before the 2028 season 48%

Next is Before the 2027 season at 7%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Before the 2028 season
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before the 2028 season
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before the 2027 season
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before the 2027 season
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
November 30, 2026
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 30, 2026
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$342
Trade this on Polymarket
December 31, 2026
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2026
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fox Sports, ESPN, ATP

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before the 2028 season
  • Before the 2027 season
  • November 30, 2026

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Before the 2028 season for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will Novak Djokovic announce his retirement by...?". Before the 2028 season leads at 48%. Next is Before the 2027 season at 7%. $22K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Novak Djokovic officially announces his retirement from ATP Tour professional tennis by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To resolve "Yes", the announcement must clearly state that Novak Djokovic is retiring or indefinitely departing from ATP Tour professional tennis with intention of not participating in any event that contributes to an ATP ranking. The announcement must come from Novak Djokovic or official representatives thereof. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure from professional competition intended to be effective within 12 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave competition in 2 years," nor "I will not play forever," would qualify). If Djokovic retires in a qualifying manner but maintains, renews, or announces his intention to participate in the Olympics, that retirement will still qualify. Olympic participation, or participation in a tennis competition which does not contribute to an ATP ranking, will have no bearing on this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the named individual or authorized representatives thereof.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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