This market has closed
Trading ended on Jul 1, 2021. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
- Polymarket
No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:

- UMA optimistic oracle
About this market
Final prediction market prices for "Will NYC fully reopen by July 1?". $351K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jul 1, 2021.
This is a market on whether New York City will meet Mayor Bill de Blasio’s target to “fully reopen” by July 1, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if at any time before July 1, 2021, 12:00 AM ET, an official announcement is made by the City of New York which has the effect of allowing all of the following to reopen at full capacity: restaurants, stores, shops, offices, hair salons, barber shops, gyms, arenas, stadiums, theaters, and museums. All of the previously listed establishments and venues must be allowed to reopen at full capacity for this market to resolve to “Yes”. Reopening at full capacity will mean the establishments and venues listed above have no COVID-related capacity limits (i.e. they are able to return to their pre-COVID capacity limits), and no requirements for patrons or employees to physically distance from each other. This market will still resolve to “Yes” if the establishments and venues listed above reopen at full capacity, but such a reopening is restricted to only a subset of people who meet certain requirements--for example, they are fully vaccinated or have had a negative covid test within the last 72 hours. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the previously listed venues reopen at full capacity, but there are still requirements to wear masks indoors. Otherwise, if the criteria for this market to resolve to “Yes” are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, an official announcement will include updates to official New York City webpages (e.g. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/coronavirus/index.page), and/or press releases or other statements to the press or public from the Office of the Mayor of New York City (https://www1.nyc.gov/office-of-the-mayor/news.page). In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). Update: - The reopening announcement must come from NYC or the Mayor’s Office. A reopening announcement by only the State of New York or the Governor’s Office will not count. - This market concerns whether, before July 1, 2021, NYC will announce that a full reopening (as defined in the rules) is allowed on or before July 1, 2021, not whether the City or its businesses will implement such a reopening on or before July 1, 2021. - If the reopening requires physically distancing, for either vaccinated or unvaccinated people, this market will resolve to “No.”
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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