The Prediction Markets

Will OpenTable’s “Seated diners from online, phone, and walk-in reservations” data point for the United States exceed its 2019 baseline by 7% or more by November 1, 2021?

Closed
Nov 1, 2021
Traded
$21K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Nov 1, 2021. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: opentable.com

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will OpenTable’s “Seated diners from online, phone, and walk-in reservations” data point for the United States exceed its 2019 baseline by 7% or more by November 1, 2021?". $21K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Nov 1, 2021.

In response to trader inquiry: This market will resolve according to the resolution source’s website data table, where final daily percentages rounded to the nearest whole number are recorded, and not the live graph. If the website data table is unavailable, rounded numbers from the downloadable csv will be used. Each daily check will check numbers from the day of the market’s inception, August 19, up to the day prior. This is a market on whether OpenTable’s State of the Industry site will display a day whose “Seated diners from online, phone, and walk-in reservations” exceed its 2019 baseline by 7% or more on or before November 1, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, on or before November 1, 2021, 3 PM ET, https://www.opentable.com/state-of-industry lists an increase of 7% or more for the United States under the section “Seated diners from online, phone, and walk-in reservations.” This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single day between the beginning of the market and November 1, 2021, inclusive, with an increase of at least 7% compared to its 2019 baseline. The resolution source will be checked daily at 3 P.M. ET each day following the opening of this market and will resolve if an increase of 7% or more is displayed for the United States. The resolution source will be checked for the last time at 3 P.M. ET on November 2, 2021, or once per day until November 9, 2021 if data for November 1 is not immediately available. If no data is available for November 1, 2021 at 3 P.M. ET on November 9, 2021 and no day before November 1 has an increase of 7% or more, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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