The Prediction Markets

Will PP and Vox win 50% of the vote in Spain's election?

Closes
Nov 29, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$27K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

At least 50% 48%

Next is Yes at 46%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
At least 50%
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 50%
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yes
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
18-20%
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
18-20%
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$338
Trade this on Polymarket
16-18%
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
16-18%
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$238
Trade this on Polymarket
32-34%
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
32-34%
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$265
Trade this on Polymarket
30-32%
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
30-32%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Polymarket
28%
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
28%
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Polymarket
34-36%
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
34-36%
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$338
Trade this on Polymarket
20-22%
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
20-22%
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$388
Trade this on Polymarket
16%
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
16%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$151
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 3 more outcomes
28-30%
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
28-30%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$135
Trade this on Polymarket
22%+
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
22%+
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$667
Trade this on Polymarket
36%+
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
36%+
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$410
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Junta Electoral Central, Spanish Ministry of the Interior

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 50%
  • Yes
  • 18-20%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list At least 50% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will PP and Vox win 50% of the vote in Spain's election?". At least 50% leads at 48%. Next is Yes at 46%. $27K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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