The Prediction Markets

Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race?

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 11 days
Traded
$9K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Yes 25.5%

Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Yes 25.5%No 74.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Yes
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The leading outcome on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Yes

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover Yes and No across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race?". Yes leads at 25.5%. $9K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, the Republican party nominee fails to win one or more of the Senate races listed below. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The relevant races are the currently-scheduled United States Senate races in: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida (Special), Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected. Candidates who run as independents or third-party candidates will not be considered to be Republicans regardless of affiliation or caucus decisions. In the event that the winner of an election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that election will not be considered for purposes of this market. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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