The Prediction Markets

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$4.6M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Before Oct 1, 2027 52%

Next is Before Jan 1, 2028 at 50%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Before Oct 1, 2027
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Oct 1, 2027
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2028
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2028
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jul 1, 2027
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jul 1, 2027
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
June 30, 2027
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 30, 2027
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$145K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Apr 1, 2027
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Apr 1, 2027
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2027
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$100K
Trade this on Kalshi
December 31
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$1.1M
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Samuel Alito, Supreme Court

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Oct 1, 2027
  • Before Jan 1, 2028
  • Before Jul 1, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Before Oct 1, 2027 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?". Before Oct 1, 2027 leads at 52%. Next is Before Jan 1, 2028 at 50%. $4.6M has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets