The Prediction Markets

Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$16K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Yes 2.6%

The venues differ most on Yes (Polymarket 3.1%, Kalshi 1%), a 2.1-point gap.

Yes 2.6%No 97.4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 8 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Yes
2.6%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 8 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Kalshi resolves on the acquirer announcing an agreement; Polymarket on an official announcement that the target will be acquired by or merged with the acquirer. A merger framed the other way round can split them.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Securities and Exchange Commission, ABC, CNBC
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi resolves on the acquirer announcing an agreement; Polymarket on an official announcement that the target will be acquired by or merged with the acquirer. A merger framed the other way round can split them.
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The leading outcome on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Yes

Live prices for Yes

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Cover Yes and No across venues

Loading every outcome’s book…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?". Yes leads at 2.6%. $16K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Chipotle Mexican Grill will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Starbucks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Starbucks or Chipotle Mexican Grill will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Starbucks or Chipotle Mexican Grill, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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